The 60/40 portfolio - bruised, but not battered

The 60/40 portfolio in 2022

2022 wasn’t great for equities or bonds. Rising and persistent inflation led to rapid increases in central bank interest rates globally, which had a negative effect on equity valuations, pushing bond yields up and subsequently values down significantly.

The largest stock market in the world, the S&P 500, fell by 18.1% in 2022, while a similar measure of the bond market (five year US Treasury Note) fell by 9.4%. A simple 60/40 split would have lost you 14.6%. 

Ordinarily, both markets falling simultaneously is uncommon (only the third time in 100 years for the above markets), as when equities fall, bonds typically provide the ballast, rising to counteract equity declines. The fall of both has led to the death knell to be sounded for the 60/40 portfolio.

What are the alternatives to bonds and are they riskier?

As bond yields sharply rose through 2022, the tendency for some has been to replace bonds with ‘alternative assets’ –  total return funds, hedge funds, commodity indices, private equity or structured products to name just some that might fall into this category.

Although the inclusion of these alternatives may be an attempt to protect against market falls, you should be careful they are not just adding additional risk. A traditional industry measure of risk (standard deviation) may not highlight this because this can be distorted by the less frequent pricing of some alternatives. As many alternative investments are valued monthly, or even quarterly, these are likely to exhibit modest price movement (low standard deviation) for long periods giving the appearance of low-risk assets. However, in reality, the underlying assets can be as susceptible to market stress as those they’re replacing, just masked by an industry risk measure and, a sudden, sharp loss of value can similarly occur. Additional liquidity, default, currency and equity risks can be the outcome of such changes.

As we’ve seen, while bonds can fall in value, if issued by reputable governments and companies, they can still be presented as the relatively ‘risk-free’ asset. It can be easy to lose faith as values fall, however, we should remind ourselves that academically tested portfolio construction remains key to consistent long-term reward and risk control. Reacting to market falls and altering an investment strategy often leads only to increased costs and erosion of value, because movements in or out of markets usually come once value has been destroyed (selling out) or already made (buying in). Taking a seat in the corner, recovering and being able to continue the fight is usually the best strategy. 

Outlook for the 60/40 portfolio

We’ve reviewed the performance of a notional 60/40 portfolio since 1926. 2022 was only the sixth year in this period when this type of portfolio fell by more than 10% and, on average, cumulative returns have been strong in subsequent one, three and five year periods.

Source: Dimensional Returns Web - 60% S&P 500, 40% 5 Year US Treasury Note. January 1926 – December 2022.

Markets have a tendency to repeat history, making a strong case for you to stick with the long-term plan and reminding us that steep market declines should not derail progress towards reaping the expected benefit of investing.

What should you do?

With history as a guide, there is no reason to dismiss the methodology behind the 60/40 portfolio and it remains well placed to deliver the returns required for your financial plan. In reality, most investors will not necessarily have a portfolio with a precise 60/40 structure as each investor’s circumstances and planning should be considered but the principle still stands.

It may have taken a heavy blow but you should expect to take a few shots and not get knocked out by short-term moves. The 60/40 is alive and well and could be poised to deliver healthy returns going forward.